Sunday, March 29, 2009
A Little Proof
I wrote in a previous post "This election is all about alliances" says the cynic witnin me "no issue, no agenda, no serious debate. Pure airthmatic, No politics". The utmost focus is on daily building and breaking alliances and not on what a party or an alliance has to offer. Later I read this article on IBN website about a debate by CNN-IBN’s Face the Elections on Alliance mela: Do the 2009 elections show an end of ideology? Panel members were Kapil Sibal from Congress, Ravi Shankar Prasad from BJP and Sagrika Ghosh as Moderator. There is not a single sentence in article which has word idealogy, once talk begins “whether it is end of ideology or not”, leave alone whether it should be or not. All talk is concentrated on whose alliance is stronger and how many would come back to their “old partners” in post poll scenario. Kapil says “we have lost only PMK and have an additional alliance of Mamta. Those we are fighting in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have publicly stated that they will continue with the UPA. BJP should be worried because from 23 it is reduced to 6”. Ravi Shankar Prasad Retorts by telling “how respectable Advani is to all the allies etc etc ”. Bottom line: whole debate is about alliance. Without using the word Ideology, Both participants confirm that 2009 elections show an end of ideology. Even audience agrees, 82% says it shows an end. Whether it ought, I leave this question for youth of this country to decide.
Parties in India
1. Indian National Congress is “grand old party” of India led by Sonia Gandhi. Last government was headed by it along with support of several allies. It is going in present election with Nationalist congress party, Trinmool Congress, DMK, National conference etc Any more introduction needed?
2. Bhartiya Janta Party: It was second biggest party in 14th Lok sabha. It is led By Lal Krishna Advani, also the prime ministerial candidate of NDA, an alliance led by BJP including JD(U), Shivsena, Akali Dal, Indian National Lok Dal, RLD and AGP. It is political wing of RSS a Hindu Nationalist organization. Its legacy can be traced back to Bhartiya Jan Sagh in pre 1977 period.
3. Communist party Of India(Marxist): After Success of Bolshevik revolution in Russia, in every nation communist parties were formed. Communist party of India was formed at that time. In 1964 a radical section got seprated from old party and named itself CPI(M). Inspite of some later divisions It remains biggest communist party in india, is led by prakash karat,and is quite strong in Kerla, West Bengal and Tripura. It is biggest party in Third front.
4. Samajwadi Party is a political party with main base in Uttar Pradesh. It describes itself as a democratic socialist party. It was founded on October 4, 1992. The Samajwadi Party was one of several parties that emerged when the Janata Dal (People's League), fragmented into several regional parties. Its main leaders include Mulayam Singh Yadav, Amar Singh etc.
5. Rashtriya Janata Dal was founded in 1997 by Laloo Prasad Yadav. The party came about as a result of Lalu Prasad Yadav, ex-president of Janata Dal, being evicted by Sharad Yadav, the then president, on corruption charges over the farm support funds. In 2008, RJD received the status of recognized national level party following its performance in north-eastern states but its main strength is in Bihar. RJD and LJP are contesting the election together in Bihar.
6. Bahujan Samaj Party is led by Mayawati and is ruling party in Uttar Pradesh. It was formed to chiefly represent Bahujans (OBC, SC, ST & Minorities), who are thought by some to be at the bottom of the Indian caste system, and claims to be inspired by the philosophy of Ambedkar. The BSP was founded by the high-profile charismatic leader Kanshi Ram in 1984. On 11 May 2007 the Uttar Pradesh state assembly election results made BSP the first single majority party since 1991. After 15 years of hung assembly, BSP won a clear majority in India's most populated state.
7. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (literally "Dravidian Progress Federation" [1]) is a regional political party with presence mainly in Tamilnadu. It is a Dravidian party founded by C. N. Annadurai as a breakaway faction from the Dravidar Kazhagam headed by Periyar. The party is headed by M Karunanidhi since 1969, the incumbent Chief Minister of the state. From Justice party Periyar carved out the "Dravida Kazhagham" However, over the years, disputes arose between Periyar and his followers. In 1949, several of his followers led by C. N. Annadurai, decided to split from Dravida Kazhagham and form DMK. It split over the past three decades into the AIADMK in the 1970s and the MDMK in the 1990s.
8. Shiv Sena is a far right wing political party in India founded on June 19, 1966 by Balasaheb Thackeray who resigned from the active leadership and gave the position to his son Uddhav. The party originally emerged out of a movement in Mumbai, the then-Bombay, broadly favouring increased influence of Marathis in Maharashtra. Gradually the party moved from solely advocating a pro-Marathi ideology, to one supporting a broader Hindu nationalist agenda. Shiv Sena-BJP would contest together in Maharastra election.
9. Biju Janata Dal is a regional party of the Indian state of Orissa led by Naveen Patnaik, son of former state chief minister Biju Patnaik. Naveen took over his father's Lok Sabha seat in 1996 as a member of the Janata Dal. In 1997, Naveen split from Janata Dal over its failure to ally with the BJP, and formed the BJD in December 1997. The BJD has participated in several ruling coalitions with the Bharatiya Janata Party both at the Centre and in Orissa. But now it has broken its alliance and decided to go alone in Lok Sabha as well as State assembly elections.
10. Communist Party of India: It is old communist party formed in tweties by MN Roy, Dange etc. In 1964, the division in it on question of USSR-China relationship,cooperation with congress etc led to birth of communist party of india(Marxist). Currently a part of left front led by CPI(M) which iclude other groups like forward block, Revolutionary Socialist Party etc. A member of Third front in this election.
11. Sharad Pawar, Purno Aitok Sangma and Tariq Anwar split from the Congress because They felt no foreign-born person should rule India and formed Nationalist Congress Party(NCP) on May 12, 1999, the day the Kargil war began. The NCP's primary aim was to see that no person of foreign origin should occupy the prime minister's office. It also stated that the country needed to be united and must maintain its secular and democratic traditions. It also emphasised on federalism. The NCP split after Sangma and Pawar differed over the issue of forming an alliance with congress in the 2004 general election when Pawar was for alliance. Congress-NCP would contest together in maharastra.
12. Akali Dal, also called Shiromani Akali Dal (Supreme Akali Party), is a collection of Sikh political parties mainly based in Punjab founded/headed by different people. Akali Dal was formed on 13 December 1920. Akali Dal's history is full of divisions and factionalism. Each faction claims to be the real Akali Dal. In 2003, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), headed by Parkash Singh Badal, was the largest faction and the one recognized as having the name SAD (Badal) by the Election Commission of India. At the February 2007 Punjab state elections, the Shiromani Akali Dal led by Parkash Singh Badal won 48 of the 117 seats and heads government in coalition with BJP with Parkash Singh Badal as chief minister. It would contest Lok Sabha Election 2009 in coalition with BJP.
13. Janata Dal (United) is a political party in India with political presence mainly in Bihar and Karnataka. It is led by Nitish Kumar. The current party was formed by the merger of the erstwhile Janata Dal (United) with the Samata Party on October 30, 2003. The uniting force is believed to be common opposition to Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar. The Samata Party was formed as an offshoot of the Janata Dal in 1994 by Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes. The reason given was that the Janata Dal had shifted to casteism. The party has socialist leanings . It would contest election in alliance with BJP.
14. Pattali Makkal Katchi is a Tamil political party. PMK participated in the National Democratic Alliance until December 2003, and was part of the Indian central government from 1999-2003. In 2004, PMK joined the United Progressive Alliance. The PMK founder is Dr. S. Ramdoss and the president is G.K. Mani. Ramdoss had earlier worked with the Vanniyar Sangham (Vanniyar Union) founded by him in 1980. PMK is based amongst the Vanniar caste, an OBC community. PMK has advocated the bifurcation of the state of Tamil Nadu, a proposal that was seen as a casteist line. PMK was mainly based in the northern half of the state.
15. Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is a regional political party in Andhra Pradesh. Its main aim is the formation of a Telangana state. K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) was a member of the Telugu Desam Party until he quit the party and formed the TRS in 2001. In the 2004 assembly elections, the TRS formed an alliance with Congress (I) and won 26 state assembly seats. The party also won 5 parliament seats at the national level. It joined the governments at both state and central level. In September 2006 the party withdrew support for the central government on the grounds of indecision by the government over the delivery of its electoral promise to create Telangana and now is with Left led third front.
16. Jharkhand Mukti Morch: It is based in Jharkand and in undevided bihar, its main aim was to struggle for a seprate Jharkhand sate. Shibu Soren is its leader.
18. Telugu Desam Party or TDP is a regional political party in Andhra Pradesh state. It was founded by former Telugu film star N.T. Rama Rao . In the 13th Lok Sabha (1999-2004), it was the fourth largest party with 29 members but got reduced to 5 seats in 2004 lok sabha elections.
The party was voted into power in a record nine months after its establishment on March 29, 1982 because of charisma of NTR. In 1995, Nara Chandrababu Naidu, finance minister and the third son-in-law of NTR overthrew Rama Rao's government by gathering a majority of the MLAs in September 1995. On October 9, 2008, TDP announced a major shift in its policy towards Telangana. The politburo of TDP, after long rounds of discussion, decided that it would favour a separate state for Telangana and this time it is contesting with TRS.
19. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam a political party from tamilnadu formed in 1994 by Mr. V. Gopalswamy (also known as Vaiko), a member of Rajyasabha and a party activitist of DMK. The MDMK split on 9 July, 2008 with the looming possibility of a vote of confidence in Parliament against the UPA. This time it is contesting election in coalition with AIDMK in tamilandu.
20. Lok Jan Shakti Party is led by Ram Vilas Paswan. The party was formed in 2000 when Paswan split from Janata Dal (United). The party has considerable following amongst Dalits in Bihar. The 2004 Lok Sabha elections marked a major break-through for the party. It contested the polls in alliance with the Indian National Congress and the RJD and won 4 Lok Sabha seats. This time it is contesting in Bihar in alliance with RJD.
21. Rashtriya Lok Dal: It is a party based mainly in Jat belt of western Uttar Pradesh. It is led by Ajit Singh son of former prime minister Charan Singh. It is contesting election in alliance with BJP.
22. Forward Block: Neta Ji Subhash Chandra Bose formed it after quitting congress in 1939. It was a party for a nationalistic kind of socialism. Currently a part of Left front, would contest election as a member of recently formed Third front.
23. Revolutionary Socialist Party:
24. Janata Dal (Secular) is a left of centre Indian political party led by former Prime Minister of India H.D. Deve Gowda. It was formed in July 1999 by the split of Janata Dal party. It has political presence mainly in Karnataka. Janata Dal split in 1999 when some leaders left to ally with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and form the Janata Dal (United) party. JD(S) is a part of Left led Third front.
25. All India Trinamool Congress, is a political party mainly based in west bengal led by Mamata Banerjee. Founded in 1997, it consisted largely of defectors from the Indian National Congress in Bengal. Mamata Banerjee was expelled from Indian National Congress on 22 December, 1997 and she formed her own party and christened it as “Trinamool Congress”. It is a pre poll partner of congress in West Bengal in this Lok Sabha Election.
26. The Jammu & Kashmir National Conference is a political party in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, India. Led at the time of Indian Independence in 1947 by Sheikh Abdullah, it dominated electoral politics in the state for many decades. Grandson of Sheikh Abdullah, Omar Abdullah heads a minority government with support of congress in state right now. Congress and NC would contest Election together.
27. Asom Gana Parishad is a political party in Assam, India. The AGP was formed after the historic Assam Accord of 1985 when Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was elected as the youngest chief minister of the country. AGP was a result of 6 years long Assam Agitation started in 1979 against Illegal Infiltration of Foreigners from Bangladesh into Assam, led by All Assam Students Union(AASU). The AGP has formed government twice from 1985 to 1989 and from 1996 to 2001. AGP will contest with BJP in this Lok Sabha election.
(Numbers are according to their position in 2004 LOK Sabha election).
2. Bhartiya Janta Party: It was second biggest party in 14th Lok sabha. It is led By Lal Krishna Advani, also the prime ministerial candidate of NDA, an alliance led by BJP including JD(U), Shivsena, Akali Dal, Indian National Lok Dal, RLD and AGP. It is political wing of RSS a Hindu Nationalist organization. Its legacy can be traced back to Bhartiya Jan Sagh in pre 1977 period.
3. Communist party Of India(Marxist): After Success of Bolshevik revolution in Russia, in every nation communist parties were formed. Communist party of India was formed at that time. In 1964 a radical section got seprated from old party and named itself CPI(M). Inspite of some later divisions It remains biggest communist party in india, is led by prakash karat,and is quite strong in Kerla, West Bengal and Tripura. It is biggest party in Third front.
4. Samajwadi Party is a political party with main base in Uttar Pradesh. It describes itself as a democratic socialist party. It was founded on October 4, 1992. The Samajwadi Party was one of several parties that emerged when the Janata Dal (People's League), fragmented into several regional parties. Its main leaders include Mulayam Singh Yadav, Amar Singh etc.
5. Rashtriya Janata Dal was founded in 1997 by Laloo Prasad Yadav. The party came about as a result of Lalu Prasad Yadav, ex-president of Janata Dal, being evicted by Sharad Yadav, the then president, on corruption charges over the farm support funds. In 2008, RJD received the status of recognized national level party following its performance in north-eastern states but its main strength is in Bihar. RJD and LJP are contesting the election together in Bihar.
6. Bahujan Samaj Party is led by Mayawati and is ruling party in Uttar Pradesh. It was formed to chiefly represent Bahujans (OBC, SC, ST & Minorities), who are thought by some to be at the bottom of the Indian caste system, and claims to be inspired by the philosophy of Ambedkar. The BSP was founded by the high-profile charismatic leader Kanshi Ram in 1984. On 11 May 2007 the Uttar Pradesh state assembly election results made BSP the first single majority party since 1991. After 15 years of hung assembly, BSP won a clear majority in India's most populated state.
7. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (literally "Dravidian Progress Federation" [1]) is a regional political party with presence mainly in Tamilnadu. It is a Dravidian party founded by C. N. Annadurai as a breakaway faction from the Dravidar Kazhagam headed by Periyar. The party is headed by M Karunanidhi since 1969, the incumbent Chief Minister of the state. From Justice party Periyar carved out the "Dravida Kazhagham" However, over the years, disputes arose between Periyar and his followers. In 1949, several of his followers led by C. N. Annadurai, decided to split from Dravida Kazhagham and form DMK. It split over the past three decades into the AIADMK in the 1970s and the MDMK in the 1990s.
8. Shiv Sena is a far right wing political party in India founded on June 19, 1966 by Balasaheb Thackeray who resigned from the active leadership and gave the position to his son Uddhav. The party originally emerged out of a movement in Mumbai, the then-Bombay, broadly favouring increased influence of Marathis in Maharashtra. Gradually the party moved from solely advocating a pro-Marathi ideology, to one supporting a broader Hindu nationalist agenda. Shiv Sena-BJP would contest together in Maharastra election.
9. Biju Janata Dal is a regional party of the Indian state of Orissa led by Naveen Patnaik, son of former state chief minister Biju Patnaik. Naveen took over his father's Lok Sabha seat in 1996 as a member of the Janata Dal. In 1997, Naveen split from Janata Dal over its failure to ally with the BJP, and formed the BJD in December 1997. The BJD has participated in several ruling coalitions with the Bharatiya Janata Party both at the Centre and in Orissa. But now it has broken its alliance and decided to go alone in Lok Sabha as well as State assembly elections.
10. Communist Party of India: It is old communist party formed in tweties by MN Roy, Dange etc. In 1964, the division in it on question of USSR-China relationship,cooperation with congress etc led to birth of communist party of india(Marxist). Currently a part of left front led by CPI(M) which iclude other groups like forward block, Revolutionary Socialist Party etc. A member of Third front in this election.
11. Sharad Pawar, Purno Aitok Sangma and Tariq Anwar split from the Congress because They felt no foreign-born person should rule India and formed Nationalist Congress Party(NCP) on May 12, 1999, the day the Kargil war began. The NCP's primary aim was to see that no person of foreign origin should occupy the prime minister's office. It also stated that the country needed to be united and must maintain its secular and democratic traditions. It also emphasised on federalism. The NCP split after Sangma and Pawar differed over the issue of forming an alliance with congress in the 2004 general election when Pawar was for alliance. Congress-NCP would contest together in maharastra.
12. Akali Dal, also called Shiromani Akali Dal (Supreme Akali Party), is a collection of Sikh political parties mainly based in Punjab founded/headed by different people. Akali Dal was formed on 13 December 1920. Akali Dal's history is full of divisions and factionalism. Each faction claims to be the real Akali Dal. In 2003, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), headed by Parkash Singh Badal, was the largest faction and the one recognized as having the name SAD (Badal) by the Election Commission of India. At the February 2007 Punjab state elections, the Shiromani Akali Dal led by Parkash Singh Badal won 48 of the 117 seats and heads government in coalition with BJP with Parkash Singh Badal as chief minister. It would contest Lok Sabha Election 2009 in coalition with BJP.
13. Janata Dal (United) is a political party in India with political presence mainly in Bihar and Karnataka. It is led by Nitish Kumar. The current party was formed by the merger of the erstwhile Janata Dal (United) with the Samata Party on October 30, 2003. The uniting force is believed to be common opposition to Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar. The Samata Party was formed as an offshoot of the Janata Dal in 1994 by Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes. The reason given was that the Janata Dal had shifted to casteism. The party has socialist leanings . It would contest election in alliance with BJP.
14. Pattali Makkal Katchi is a Tamil political party. PMK participated in the National Democratic Alliance until December 2003, and was part of the Indian central government from 1999-2003. In 2004, PMK joined the United Progressive Alliance. The PMK founder is Dr. S. Ramdoss and the president is G.K. Mani. Ramdoss had earlier worked with the Vanniyar Sangham (Vanniyar Union) founded by him in 1980. PMK is based amongst the Vanniar caste, an OBC community. PMK has advocated the bifurcation of the state of Tamil Nadu, a proposal that was seen as a casteist line. PMK was mainly based in the northern half of the state.
15. Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is a regional political party in Andhra Pradesh. Its main aim is the formation of a Telangana state. K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) was a member of the Telugu Desam Party until he quit the party and formed the TRS in 2001. In the 2004 assembly elections, the TRS formed an alliance with Congress (I) and won 26 state assembly seats. The party also won 5 parliament seats at the national level. It joined the governments at both state and central level. In September 2006 the party withdrew support for the central government on the grounds of indecision by the government over the delivery of its electoral promise to create Telangana and now is with Left led third front.
16. Jharkhand Mukti Morch: It is based in Jharkand and in undevided bihar, its main aim was to struggle for a seprate Jharkhand sate. Shibu Soren is its leader.
18. Telugu Desam Party or TDP is a regional political party in Andhra Pradesh state. It was founded by former Telugu film star N.T. Rama Rao . In the 13th Lok Sabha (1999-2004), it was the fourth largest party with 29 members but got reduced to 5 seats in 2004 lok sabha elections.
The party was voted into power in a record nine months after its establishment on March 29, 1982 because of charisma of NTR. In 1995, Nara Chandrababu Naidu, finance minister and the third son-in-law of NTR overthrew Rama Rao's government by gathering a majority of the MLAs in September 1995. On October 9, 2008, TDP announced a major shift in its policy towards Telangana. The politburo of TDP, after long rounds of discussion, decided that it would favour a separate state for Telangana and this time it is contesting with TRS.
19. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam a political party from tamilnadu formed in 1994 by Mr. V. Gopalswamy (also known as Vaiko), a member of Rajyasabha and a party activitist of DMK. The MDMK split on 9 July, 2008 with the looming possibility of a vote of confidence in Parliament against the UPA. This time it is contesting election in coalition with AIDMK in tamilandu.
20. Lok Jan Shakti Party is led by Ram Vilas Paswan. The party was formed in 2000 when Paswan split from Janata Dal (United). The party has considerable following amongst Dalits in Bihar. The 2004 Lok Sabha elections marked a major break-through for the party. It contested the polls in alliance with the Indian National Congress and the RJD and won 4 Lok Sabha seats. This time it is contesting in Bihar in alliance with RJD.
21. Rashtriya Lok Dal: It is a party based mainly in Jat belt of western Uttar Pradesh. It is led by Ajit Singh son of former prime minister Charan Singh. It is contesting election in alliance with BJP.
22. Forward Block: Neta Ji Subhash Chandra Bose formed it after quitting congress in 1939. It was a party for a nationalistic kind of socialism. Currently a part of Left front, would contest election as a member of recently formed Third front.
23. Revolutionary Socialist Party:
24. Janata Dal (Secular) is a left of centre Indian political party led by former Prime Minister of India H.D. Deve Gowda. It was formed in July 1999 by the split of Janata Dal party. It has political presence mainly in Karnataka. Janata Dal split in 1999 when some leaders left to ally with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and form the Janata Dal (United) party. JD(S) is a part of Left led Third front.
25. All India Trinamool Congress, is a political party mainly based in west bengal led by Mamata Banerjee. Founded in 1997, it consisted largely of defectors from the Indian National Congress in Bengal. Mamata Banerjee was expelled from Indian National Congress on 22 December, 1997 and she formed her own party and christened it as “Trinamool Congress”. It is a pre poll partner of congress in West Bengal in this Lok Sabha Election.
26. The Jammu & Kashmir National Conference is a political party in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, India. Led at the time of Indian Independence in 1947 by Sheikh Abdullah, it dominated electoral politics in the state for many decades. Grandson of Sheikh Abdullah, Omar Abdullah heads a minority government with support of congress in state right now. Congress and NC would contest Election together.
27. Asom Gana Parishad is a political party in Assam, India. The AGP was formed after the historic Assam Accord of 1985 when Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was elected as the youngest chief minister of the country. AGP was a result of 6 years long Assam Agitation started in 1979 against Illegal Infiltration of Foreigners from Bangladesh into Assam, led by All Assam Students Union(AASU). The AGP has formed government twice from 1985 to 1989 and from 1996 to 2001. AGP will contest with BJP in this Lok Sabha election.
(Numbers are according to their position in 2004 LOK Sabha election).
Friday, March 27, 2009
What this election is all about?
"This election is all about alliances" says the cynic witnin me "no issue, no agenda, no serious debate. Pure airthmatic, No politics". The utmost focus is on daily building and breaking alliances and not on what a party or an alliance has to offer. The little talk which happens goes around vague terms like Development, Security, Harmony, National interest etc. Who does not want development or Secuirty but of what nature, specifications please: and there follows a dead silence. Does development means anything more than aggregate GDP growth and Security more than UAPA or POTA: and there follows a dead silence. Since 1989, after demise of the congress hegemony at national level, number of parties compteting for a share in political power has increased. So to say, people have more options on voting machine but without qualittative expansion of choices concerning real life issues. Congress and BJP has to work hard to invent an issue which shows difference between them. On economic matters both stand for Liberalisation,Privatisation and Globlisation (LPG) as Manmohan Singh says "there is a consensus on economic reforms among all parties", In foriegn policy both are working hard to make our nation sit in lap of Uncle Sam, even on much talked issue of terrorism where both try to amplify their differences, POTA and UAPA is not really different. Most of other parties are of "Sleep today with BJP, tommorow with congress, day after tommorow with third front" type.
Still we have to know what this election is all about, so let us try:
1) As they say "first people voted in state assembly election, as if they were choosing the prime minister.Now they vote is Lok Sabha election as if they are choosing their chief minister". Add to this, absence of any national issue or wave and it becomes clear that "The final outcome will reflect the sum total equilibrium of political forces at the State level" in words of yogendra yadav. So this election is about states, its analysis also shoud be based on states. How people of gujrat would vote would have no corelation to how people of andhra pradesh vote for example.
2) For BJP: Today, it retains only six of the 22 allies it had in the NDA’s heyday—the JD(U) in Bihar, the INLD in Haryana, the RLD in UP, the AGP in Assam, the Akali Dal in Punjab and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. In 2004 Lok Sabha elections In Madhya Preadesh BJP got 25 out of 29, In Chattisgarh 10 out of 11and in Karnataka 18 out of 26. In last year state assembly elections BJP won in all three states and can hope to perform well again. Overall these 3 states would show a slight loss of seats for BJP from previous score 53 out of 66. In Rajsthan from where BJP got 21 out of 25 last time, we saw voters choosing congress in assembly elections before few months. Though BJP survey shows it is recovering, yet we can be sure of a heavy loss in Rajsthan. In orissa it got 7 seats out of 9 it contested in alliance with ex partner BJD which won 11 out of 12 seats (alliance taking 18 out of total 21 seats in state). Since BJD has broken alliance, in addition to a heavly loss for NDA, BJP may loose some of its seats. In Punjab BJP+Akali Dal would not repeat its previous score of 11 out of 13 and loss is sure. In Bihar where BJP+JD(U) got 11 out of 40 seats last time,image of Nitish Kumar and a divided opposition (Congress+Sadhu Yadav Faction and RJD-LJP), would both help NDA bang the state. In Jharkand it got 1 out 14last time, there would be clear increase this time, more so if alliance between congress and JMM breaks. In Asam AJP and BJP both would improve their seats from last time 2-2 out of total 14. In Gujrat, because of image of narendra modi it would imrpove its talls from last time 14 out of 26. In Haryana INLD+BJP alliance would improve its previous tally of 1 out of 10. In Uttranachal where it got lost time 3 out of 5 and in delhi where it scored 1 out of 7, there may not be much difference. In Uttar Pradesh, alliance with Ajit Singh's Lok Dal might bring 2-3 additional seats to NDA but for BJP its effect would be offset by going away of kalyan singh and Mayawati's entry in uppaer cast votes. Rest of the states does not matter much for BJP. NDA score of 2004 without BJD stands around 100 seats lesser than majority mark:272. So much of airthmatic, now a simple question. Will NDA's Gain in Bihar,Jharkhand,Asam,Gujrat and Haryana will offset losses in Rajsthan,Orrisa and Punjab and fill the 100 seats gap to some extent? Surveys give NDA, as it stands now, around 185-190 seats.One thing is certain, Without new post poll alliances, NDA can not hope to see Mr L K Advani as next prime minister.
3) For Congress: Pre Poll alliance talks with The UPA allies like RJD,LJP and SP has failed for state of Uttar Pradesh. It Significant Pre poll allies are Nationalist Congress Party in Maharastra, Trinmool Congress in West Bengal, DMK in Tamilnadu National Confrence in Jammu and Kashmir and JMM in jharkhand(Some doubt). Lets start story of UPA from Tamilnadu where congrss/DMK/PMK/MDMK made a cleen sweep with 39 out of 39 seats. This time story is certainly different, MDMK and PMK allying with AIDMK-Left Coalition of third front we can hope heavy loss for Congress-DMK coalition. In neighbouring state kerla where congress was swept away by LDF lastime(0out of 17 seats contested out of 20) it can hope a gain. In another southern state Andhra pradesh where out of 42 seats it contested 34 and won 29, this time TDD-TRS-Left Led Third front would give it tough fight and loss in terms of seats. In Karnataka previous score 8 out of 28 would be either repeated or a slight loss. In Maharastra,for congress and NCP, there can be a slight improvement in its previous tally: 22 out of 48. In Rajshtan congress would hope to repeat its assembly election performance and highly improve its tally from 4 out of 25. Another state where congress would improve is West Bengal: In coalition with Mamta's Trinmool Congress this 42 seats state would first time see a tough game for Left front for first time in last 30 years. In Asam it would loose few seats(last time 9 out 14) to coaition of AGP and BJP this time. In Punjab(2 out of 13 last time) it would snatch few seats from Akali dal-BJP, while in Haryana(9 out of 10 last time) it might loose few. In Jharkhand it might loose 1-2 seats. Rest of the states wont matter that much congress. But in Bihar split in UPA camp and popularity of Nitish kumar would take quite many seats from UPA as whole. So major gains in Kerla,West Bengal, Rajshtan and Punjab and Major Losses in Tamilnadu, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Aasam and Haryana.
4) Third front: Left would be on decline from its last time all high 63 out 69 seats contested, AIDMK would increase its no of seats in tamilnadu. TDP in alliance with TRS would increase its seats in Andhra pradesh. JD(S) might not increase its tally much. BSP would increase its last time tally of 19 seats in uttar pradesh and work as spoiler for congress in many northern states. SP wont be able to hold back its last time high of 36 seats but still would emerge as a dominant player in post poll scenario.
States with Major Swing:
[State name,
Score In 2004 Elections:
What In Present Election:]
1. Uttar Pradesh
(Total Seats:80)
SP:35, BSP:17, BJP:10,Congress:9
Four parties are facing each other. BSP would improve its tally with its Sarvjan Formula. SP would go low. Not much scope for BJP or congress. RLD would bring 2-3 seats for NDA.
2. Bihar
(Total Seats:40)
RJD:22+LGP:4+Congress:3=29
JD(U):6+BJP:5=11
Split in UPA(RJD+LJP and Congres+Sadhu Faction) and Nitish image would help NDA. RJD would go low. A major gain state for NDA
3. Tamilnadu
(Total Seats:39)
DMK:16+Congress:10+PMK:6+MDMK:4+Other:3=39
AIDMK+BJP=0
AIDMK, in alliance with MDMK and PMK would gain highly. A key Loss state for UPA.
4. West Bengal:
(Total Seats:42)
Left front: 34
Congress: 6
Trinmool Congress:2
Nandigram and alliance of Congress +TMC would hit back at Left front. Both congress and TMC can hope to improve its tally.
5: Andhra Pradesh:
(Total Seats:42)
Congress:29+TRS:5
TDP:5
TDP and TRS are together backed by third front, Congress would loose a good number of seats here.
6.Rajasthan:
(Total Seats:25)
BJP: 21,
Congress: 4
Before few months, in assembly election congress won. It would be replicated. A major gain for Congress.
7. Kerala:
(Total Seats:20)
LDF:20
UDF:0
Internal Division within CPM would back off. A major gain for congress.
8. Assam:
(Total seats:14)
Congress:9
BJP:2, AGP:2
AGP and BJP forming an alliance would surly change the trend and take few seats from congress.
Add to these 8 states Orissa, where NDA got lost time 18 out of 21 but this time with BJP-BJD split, BJP might go on third no.
Still we have to know what this election is all about, so let us try:
1) As they say "first people voted in state assembly election, as if they were choosing the prime minister.Now they vote is Lok Sabha election as if they are choosing their chief minister". Add to this, absence of any national issue or wave and it becomes clear that "The final outcome will reflect the sum total equilibrium of political forces at the State level" in words of yogendra yadav. So this election is about states, its analysis also shoud be based on states. How people of gujrat would vote would have no corelation to how people of andhra pradesh vote for example.
2) For BJP: Today, it retains only six of the 22 allies it had in the NDA’s heyday—the JD(U) in Bihar, the INLD in Haryana, the RLD in UP, the AGP in Assam, the Akali Dal in Punjab and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. In 2004 Lok Sabha elections In Madhya Preadesh BJP got 25 out of 29, In Chattisgarh 10 out of 11and in Karnataka 18 out of 26. In last year state assembly elections BJP won in all three states and can hope to perform well again. Overall these 3 states would show a slight loss of seats for BJP from previous score 53 out of 66. In Rajsthan from where BJP got 21 out of 25 last time, we saw voters choosing congress in assembly elections before few months. Though BJP survey shows it is recovering, yet we can be sure of a heavy loss in Rajsthan. In orissa it got 7 seats out of 9 it contested in alliance with ex partner BJD which won 11 out of 12 seats (alliance taking 18 out of total 21 seats in state). Since BJD has broken alliance, in addition to a heavly loss for NDA, BJP may loose some of its seats. In Punjab BJP+Akali Dal would not repeat its previous score of 11 out of 13 and loss is sure. In Bihar where BJP+JD(U) got 11 out of 40 seats last time,image of Nitish Kumar and a divided opposition (Congress+Sadhu Yadav Faction and RJD-LJP), would both help NDA bang the state. In Jharkand it got 1 out 14last time, there would be clear increase this time, more so if alliance between congress and JMM breaks. In Asam AJP and BJP both would improve their seats from last time 2-2 out of total 14. In Gujrat, because of image of narendra modi it would imrpove its talls from last time 14 out of 26. In Haryana INLD+BJP alliance would improve its previous tally of 1 out of 10. In Uttranachal where it got lost time 3 out of 5 and in delhi where it scored 1 out of 7, there may not be much difference. In Uttar Pradesh, alliance with Ajit Singh's Lok Dal might bring 2-3 additional seats to NDA but for BJP its effect would be offset by going away of kalyan singh and Mayawati's entry in uppaer cast votes. Rest of the states does not matter much for BJP. NDA score of 2004 without BJD stands around 100 seats lesser than majority mark:272. So much of airthmatic, now a simple question. Will NDA's Gain in Bihar,Jharkhand,Asam,Gujrat and Haryana will offset losses in Rajsthan,Orrisa and Punjab and fill the 100 seats gap to some extent? Surveys give NDA, as it stands now, around 185-190 seats.One thing is certain, Without new post poll alliances, NDA can not hope to see Mr L K Advani as next prime minister.
3) For Congress: Pre Poll alliance talks with The UPA allies like RJD,LJP and SP has failed for state of Uttar Pradesh. It Significant Pre poll allies are Nationalist Congress Party in Maharastra, Trinmool Congress in West Bengal, DMK in Tamilnadu National Confrence in Jammu and Kashmir and JMM in jharkhand(Some doubt). Lets start story of UPA from Tamilnadu where congrss/DMK/PMK/MDMK made a cleen sweep with 39 out of 39 seats. This time story is certainly different, MDMK and PMK allying with AIDMK-Left Coalition of third front we can hope heavy loss for Congress-DMK coalition. In neighbouring state kerla where congress was swept away by LDF lastime(0out of 17 seats contested out of 20) it can hope a gain. In another southern state Andhra pradesh where out of 42 seats it contested 34 and won 29, this time TDD-TRS-Left Led Third front would give it tough fight and loss in terms of seats. In Karnataka previous score 8 out of 28 would be either repeated or a slight loss. In Maharastra,for congress and NCP, there can be a slight improvement in its previous tally: 22 out of 48. In Rajshtan congress would hope to repeat its assembly election performance and highly improve its tally from 4 out of 25. Another state where congress would improve is West Bengal: In coalition with Mamta's Trinmool Congress this 42 seats state would first time see a tough game for Left front for first time in last 30 years. In Asam it would loose few seats(last time 9 out 14) to coaition of AGP and BJP this time. In Punjab(2 out of 13 last time) it would snatch few seats from Akali dal-BJP, while in Haryana(9 out of 10 last time) it might loose few. In Jharkhand it might loose 1-2 seats. Rest of the states wont matter that much congress. But in Bihar split in UPA camp and popularity of Nitish kumar would take quite many seats from UPA as whole. So major gains in Kerla,West Bengal, Rajshtan and Punjab and Major Losses in Tamilnadu, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Aasam and Haryana.
4) Third front: Left would be on decline from its last time all high 63 out 69 seats contested, AIDMK would increase its no of seats in tamilnadu. TDP in alliance with TRS would increase its seats in Andhra pradesh. JD(S) might not increase its tally much. BSP would increase its last time tally of 19 seats in uttar pradesh and work as spoiler for congress in many northern states. SP wont be able to hold back its last time high of 36 seats but still would emerge as a dominant player in post poll scenario.
States with Major Swing:
[State name,
Score In 2004 Elections:
What In Present Election:]
1. Uttar Pradesh
(Total Seats:80)
SP:35, BSP:17, BJP:10,Congress:9
Four parties are facing each other. BSP would improve its tally with its Sarvjan Formula. SP would go low. Not much scope for BJP or congress. RLD would bring 2-3 seats for NDA.
2. Bihar
(Total Seats:40)
RJD:22+LGP:4+Congress:3=29
JD(U):6+BJP:5=11
Split in UPA(RJD+LJP and Congres+Sadhu Faction) and Nitish image would help NDA. RJD would go low. A major gain state for NDA
3. Tamilnadu
(Total Seats:39)
DMK:16+Congress:10+PMK:6+MDMK:4+Other:3=39
AIDMK+BJP=0
AIDMK, in alliance with MDMK and PMK would gain highly. A key Loss state for UPA.
4. West Bengal:
(Total Seats:42)
Left front: 34
Congress: 6
Trinmool Congress:2
Nandigram and alliance of Congress +TMC would hit back at Left front. Both congress and TMC can hope to improve its tally.
5: Andhra Pradesh:
(Total Seats:42)
Congress:29+TRS:5
TDP:5
TDP and TRS are together backed by third front, Congress would loose a good number of seats here.
6.Rajasthan:
(Total Seats:25)
BJP: 21,
Congress: 4
Before few months, in assembly election congress won. It would be replicated. A major gain for Congress.
7. Kerala:
(Total Seats:20)
LDF:20
UDF:0
Internal Division within CPM would back off. A major gain for congress.
8. Assam:
(Total seats:14)
Congress:9
BJP:2, AGP:2
AGP and BJP forming an alliance would surly change the trend and take few seats from congress.
Add to these 8 states Orissa, where NDA got lost time 18 out of 21 but this time with BJP-BJD split, BJP might go on third no.
What to expect from this blog?
Hello Friends, Welcome to the biggest festival of indian democracy:Lok Sabha Election. To be specific, 15th Lok Sabha Election 2009. The ground is ready, time table annonced and teams ready for the game. The most hectic tournament is already in motion. After 50 days,on 16th may 2009, result would be announced. This blog is to observe next 50 days in background of last 60 years of indian democracy. The airthmatic of present election, The question of who will be the next prime minister, Daily broken and built alliances etc would be a part but not whole of what I aim to discuss here.Rather i am to present in this blog a brief history of indian democracy, Post independence Journey of indian politics, evolution of various political parties (with their idealogies,structure etc) and Lok Sabha Election 2009 in easy to understand language. I dedicate This blog to indian middle class youth who loves to hate politics. I do so with an aim of politicising him.
I would also post here relavent writings from Various sources.
I would also post here relavent writings from Various sources.
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