What this election is all about?

"This election is all about alliances" says the cynic witnin me "no issue, no agenda, no serious debate. Pure airthmatic, No politics". The utmost focus is on daily building and breaking alliances and not on what a party or an alliance has to offer. The little talk which happens goes around vague terms like Development, Security, Harmony, National interest etc. Who does not want development or Secuirty but of what nature, specifications please: and there follows a dead silence. Does development means anything more than aggregate GDP growth and Security more than UAPA or POTA: and there follows a dead silence. Since 1989, after demise of the congress hegemony at national level, number of parties compteting for a share in political power has increased. So to say, people have more options on voting machine but without qualittative expansion of choices concerning real life issues. Congress and BJP has to work hard to invent an issue which shows difference between them. On economic matters both stand for Liberalisation,Privatisation and Globlisation (LPG) as Manmohan Singh says "there is a consensus on economic reforms among all parties", In foriegn policy both are working hard to make our nation sit in lap of Uncle Sam, even on much talked issue of terrorism where both try to amplify their differences, POTA and UAPA is not really different. Most of other parties are of "Sleep today with BJP, tommorow with congress, day after tommorow with third front" type.

Still we have to know what this election is all about, so let us try:
1) As they say "first people voted in state assembly election, as if they were choosing the prime minister.Now they vote is Lok Sabha election as if they are choosing their chief minister". Add to this, absence of any national issue or wave and it becomes clear that "The final outcome will reflect the sum total equilibrium of political forces at the State level" in words of yogendra yadav. So this election is about states, its analysis also shoud be based on states. How people of gujrat would vote would have no corelation to how people of andhra pradesh vote for example.

2) For BJP: Today, it retains only six of the 22 allies it had in the NDA’s heyday—the JD(U) in Bihar, the INLD in Haryana, the RLD in UP, the AGP in Assam, the Akali Dal in Punjab and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. In 2004 Lok Sabha elections In Madhya Preadesh BJP got 25 out of 29, In Chattisgarh 10 out of 11and in Karnataka 18 out of 26. In last year state assembly elections BJP won in all three states and can hope to perform well again. Overall these 3 states would show a slight loss of seats for BJP from previous score 53 out of 66. In Rajsthan from where BJP got 21 out of 25 last time, we saw voters choosing congress in assembly elections before few months. Though BJP survey shows it is recovering, yet we can be sure of a heavy loss in Rajsthan. In orissa it got 7 seats out of 9 it contested in alliance with ex partner BJD which won 11 out of 12 seats (alliance taking 18 out of total 21 seats in state). Since BJD has broken alliance, in addition to a heavly loss for NDA, BJP may loose some of its seats. In Punjab BJP+Akali Dal would not repeat its previous score of 11 out of 13 and loss is sure. In Bihar where BJP+JD(U) got 11 out of 40 seats last time,image of Nitish Kumar and a divided opposition (Congress+Sadhu Yadav Faction and RJD-LJP), would both help NDA bang the state. In Jharkand it got 1 out 14last time, there would be clear increase this time, more so if alliance between congress and JMM breaks. In Asam AJP and BJP both would improve their seats from last time 2-2 out of total 14. In Gujrat, because of image of narendra modi it would imrpove its talls from last time 14 out of 26. In Haryana INLD+BJP alliance would improve its previous tally of 1 out of 10. In Uttranachal where it got lost time 3 out of 5 and in delhi where it scored 1 out of 7, there may not be much difference. In Uttar Pradesh, alliance with Ajit Singh's Lok Dal might bring 2-3 additional seats to NDA but for BJP its effect would be offset by going away of kalyan singh and Mayawati's entry in uppaer cast votes. Rest of the states does not matter much for BJP. NDA score of 2004 without BJD stands around 100 seats lesser than majority mark:272. So much of airthmatic, now a simple question. Will NDA's Gain in Bihar,Jharkhand,Asam,Gujrat and Haryana will offset losses in Rajsthan,Orrisa and Punjab and fill the 100 seats gap to some extent? Surveys give NDA, as it stands now, around 185-190 seats.One thing is certain, Without new post poll alliances, NDA can not hope to see Mr L K Advani as next prime minister.

3) For Congress: Pre Poll alliance talks with The UPA allies like RJD,LJP and SP has failed for state of Uttar Pradesh. It Significant Pre poll allies are Nationalist Congress Party in Maharastra, Trinmool Congress in West Bengal, DMK in Tamilnadu National Confrence in Jammu and Kashmir and JMM in jharkhand(Some doubt). Lets start story of UPA from Tamilnadu where congrss/DMK/PMK/MDMK made a cleen sweep with 39 out of 39 seats. This time story is certainly different, MDMK and PMK allying with AIDMK-Left Coalition of third front we can hope heavy loss for Congress-DMK coalition. In neighbouring state kerla where congress was swept away by LDF lastime(0out of 17 seats contested out of 20) it can hope a gain. In another southern state Andhra pradesh where out of 42 seats it contested 34 and won 29, this time TDD-TRS-Left Led Third front would give it tough fight and loss in terms of seats. In Karnataka previous score 8 out of 28 would be either repeated or a slight loss. In Maharastra,for congress and NCP, there can be a slight improvement in its previous tally: 22 out of 48. In Rajshtan congress would hope to repeat its assembly election performance and highly improve its tally from 4 out of 25. Another state where congress would improve is West Bengal: In coalition with Mamta's Trinmool Congress this 42 seats state would first time see a tough game for Left front for first time in last 30 years. In Asam it would loose few seats(last time 9 out 14) to coaition of AGP and BJP this time. In Punjab(2 out of 13 last time) it would snatch few seats from Akali dal-BJP, while in Haryana(9 out of 10 last time) it might loose few. In Jharkhand it might loose 1-2 seats. Rest of the states wont matter that much congress. But in Bihar split in UPA camp and popularity of Nitish kumar would take quite many seats from UPA as whole. So major gains in Kerla,West Bengal, Rajshtan and Punjab and Major Losses in Tamilnadu, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Aasam and Haryana.

4) Third front: Left would be on decline from its last time all high 63 out 69 seats contested, AIDMK would increase its no of seats in tamilnadu. TDP in alliance with TRS would increase its seats in Andhra pradesh. JD(S) might not increase its tally much. BSP would increase its last time tally of 19 seats in uttar pradesh and work as spoiler for congress in many northern states. SP wont be able to hold back its last time high of 36 seats but still would emerge as a dominant player in post poll scenario.

States with Major Swing:

[State name,
Score In 2004 Elections:
What In Present Election:]
1. Uttar Pradesh
(Total Seats:80)
SP:35, BSP:17, BJP:10,Congress:9
Four parties are facing each other. BSP would improve its tally with its Sarvjan Formula. SP would go low. Not much scope for BJP or congress. RLD would bring 2-3 seats for NDA.
2. Bihar
(Total Seats:40)
RJD:22+LGP:4+Congress:3=29
JD(U):6+BJP:5=11
Split in UPA(RJD+LJP and Congres+Sadhu Faction) and Nitish image would help NDA. RJD would go low. A major gain state for NDA
3. Tamilnadu
(Total Seats:39)
DMK:16+Congress:10+PMK:6+MDMK:4+Other:3=39
AIDMK+BJP=0
AIDMK, in alliance with MDMK and PMK would gain highly. A key Loss state for UPA.
4. West Bengal:
(Total Seats:42)
Left front: 34
Congress: 6
Trinmool Congress:2
Nandigram and alliance of Congress +TMC would hit back at Left front. Both congress and TMC can hope to improve its tally.
5: Andhra Pradesh:
(Total Seats:42)
Congress:29+TRS:5
TDP:5
TDP and TRS are together backed by third front, Congress would loose a good number of seats here.
6.Rajasthan:
(Total Seats:25)
BJP: 21,
Congress: 4
Before few months, in assembly election congress won. It would be replicated. A major gain for Congress.
7. Kerala:
(Total Seats:20)
LDF:20
UDF:0
Internal Division within CPM would back off. A major gain for congress.
8. Assam:
(Total seats:14)
Congress:9
BJP:2, AGP:2
AGP and BJP forming an alliance would surly change the trend and take few seats from congress.
Add to these 8 states Orissa, where NDA got lost time 18 out of 21 but this time with BJP-BJD split, BJP might go on third no.